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Let's shift in the other direction and take a look at the AFC teams that I think are postseason bound this year:
AFC East: New England Patriots
-Again, more full disclosure: I'm also a big Pats fan. But they've won this division 8 times in the last 10 years, and it's hard to bet against them, at least during the regular season. I like the addition of Chad Ochocinco to the offense, and if he can cut down the shenanigans and get in sync with Tom Brady, I think he can be a huge weapon in the Patriots' arsenal as a big receiver to complement Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley will bring a new dimension to the running game, and the defense is looking better in the preseason in their biggest area of need last year: pass rushing. I'm still not completely convinced Albert Haynesworth is exactly what the team needs, but all of the other defensive free agents Belichick brought in are certainly helping so far. The Jets are spotty, and even though I still see them reaching the playoffs again with a wild card spot, many of their wins last year came against losing teams in the fourth quarter or overtime. It remains to be seen whether or not Plaxico will be able to be consistent and replace the departed Braylon Edwards, and both Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene need to step up and lead the team. Plus, they lost several key defensive players by cutting funds in the hunt for Nnamdi (Jason Taylor and Shaun Ellis come to mind), and that's going to come back and hurt them late in the game, even though I do think they'll continue to be one of the more dominant defenses in the league. The Dolphins need to find a suitable QB (maybe David Garrard, anyone?) before they can make the necessary push to contend in this division (or Chad Henne needs to step up, but I don't think he's the long term answer), and the Bills, though admirably better last year than previous years, still don't have a chance to make the playoffs this year. Lo and behold, the Patriots will win again, and move on to the postseason once more.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
-It's hard to bet against the reigning AFC champion Steelers here. They looked good last year, and if the preseason is any indication, the defense looks to be headed for another monster year, and Ben Roethlisberger looks poised to pull off another big one. The question mark/difference maker in this division, though, will be the performance of the Baltimore Ravens. I like the Ravens this year. A lot. I really do. Joe Flacco looked good in the preseason, and I really like the addition of Lee Evans on the outside; it gives Flacco another deep threat, and takes the pressure off of rookie Torrey Smith to perform and produce right now as a number 2 wideout. The defense is still good, but aging, and they need to win now before they lose Ray Lewis and other key defensive players in the next few years. The Ravens were so close last year, and all they needed (and still need to do) is overcome that last hurdle: beating the Steelers. I see the two teams splitting their matchups this year, but ultimately, the Ravens will come up one game short in the division, and the Steelers will take the title. Don't despair, Ravens fans; I still have the team getting into the playoffs by taking the second wild card slot, and good things are coming their way later. Other teams in the division...do I even have to mention the Bengals and Browns? Actually, I like the Browns, especially Colt McCoy, and maybe in a few years they'll have what it takes to contend in this division. But right here, right now, they're still in rebuilding mode, and it's tough to see them beating either the Ravens or Steelers with a new scheme, a new head coach, and no big weapons in the passing game. And the Bengals - without Carson Palmer or Ochocinco, their chances take an immediate nosedive, and they're currently the frontrunners in my book for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes (unceremoniously given to the worst team in the league), even though I do like Andy Dalton. Sorry Bengals fans. Just the way it is.
AFC South: Houston Texans
-This may seem like the popular pick, but this is the Texans year. Right. Now. This is it. The past few years, when everyone said it was their year: BULLSHIT. This is the time. And it has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Matt Schaub is my fantasy football QB. But seriously, this division seems like it's the Texans for the taking at this point. They've improved their defense significantly during the offseason (I especially like the addition of J.J. Watt) to the point where they will be at least adequate, and the Andre Johnson-Matt Schaub connection looks primed to explode. Even if Arian Foster declines in production from last year, I think the team has enough good depth in their backfield to overcome any sort of dip. Plus, take a look at the rest of the division. Let's be real: the Colt's aren't anything without Peyton Manning, Kerry Collins will not be a serviceable Band-Aid to mask their offensive issues, and the losses of Bob Sanders and Clint Session will be felt on the defensive side. With Manning undergoing cervical fusion surgery yesterday and expected to miss 2-3 months, if not the whole season, I see the Colts battling with the Titans for the number 2 and 3 spots in the division. The Titans still have Chris Johnson, but their defense still needs some work, especially in the pass rush department (the loss of Jason Babin hurts), and they need time for Jake Locker to develop into their QB of the future. Matt Hasselbeck still has some gas left in the tank, but I don't think it'll even be close to enough for a playoff run. As for Jacksonville, David Garrard may not have been the answer at QB, but Luke McCown certainly isn't, and Blaine Gabbert needs a season or two to grow before he can take a swing at being their franchise quarterback. As good as their new defense may be, the offense still needs a lot of improvement (even though they do have Maurice Jones-Drew). I see the Jags falling to last place in the division, and Jack Del Rio being out of a job halfway through the season.
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
-Yes, that's the guy that is going to lead the Chargers to the playoffs this year (this picture was too funny not to put here). It's tough not to call this one for the Chargers. They were number 1 in overall offense and defense last year, but were plagued by terrible special teams play which kept them from the postseason. They fixed that by bringing in a new special teams coach, and I think those issues will be a thing of the past this season. Couple that with the new faces on defense (Takeo Spikes, Corey Liuget) that ought to light a fire under the front seven, and the fact that Phillip Rivers will have his three favorite targets (Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Malcom Floyd) together again, while last year he was the league leader in passing yards who also threw 30 TDs to 13 interceptions and had a QB rating of 101.8 without all three of them on the field at the same time, makes me think the Chargers are in for a good year. I feel like the Kansas City Chiefs winning the division was a fluke - not that they're not good, or that their season last year was a one-time thing. I have them repeating their 10-6 record, but I think this year that won't be good enough to finish ahead of the Chargers or make it into the playoffs. As for the Raiders and Broncos, I think both should consider just a winning record to be a huge victory, but both teams have too many holes to fix before they can make a serious run at the postseason.
AFC Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets
(On a side note, I'm sorry, I just can't/refuse to put a picture of Mark Sanchez here. I just won't. So instead, you get Ray Lewis, who I can only imagine is doing his best Incredible Hulk impression, and Darrelle Revis.)
AFC Championship Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
-This is it: potentially my boldest pick of the day. Despite all odds, I think that both of these teams will overcome their playoff performance-anxiety issues and face each other in one of the toughest AFC championship games to date. I see Joe Flacco finally stepping up in the postseason and winning the wild card and divisional rounds on the road (or just the divisional round, if they happen to topple the Steelers and win the North), while Tom Brady will lead the Patriots out of their recent postseason funk. Patriots offense against the Baltimore defense seems like a difficult matchup, and honestly, I had a tough time deciding who would win this one. But I think ultimately Brady and the Patriots' passing game will overload the Baltimore secondary, the newly upgraded Patriots pass rush will force Flacco to throw the ball before he's ready, and the Pats will eek by with a late 4th quarter win. The Patriots will return to the top of the AFC heap, and despite the Ravens' best efforts, they will move on to the Super Bowl to face the Saints.
AFC Champions: New England Patriots
Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints
-This is another toughie to figure out. The picture above kinda says it all: two teams with elite quarterbacks and slightly above average secondaries will turn this game into a passing frenzy. Both teams enter this one with a bit of a chip on their shoulders (I know what you're saying, these are two elite teams, what do they have to prove? Just hear me out.): both teams will be looking to prove that their early eliminations from the playoffs last year were flukes, and that they deserve to be perennial contenders for the Lombardi Trophy. New Orleans, for instance, will do whatever it takes to make people forget this:
(If you want to laugh for 3 minutes, watch this video).
But here is where I have to listen to reason, and not my heart (as a Pats fan), and think of my journalistic integrity. As much as it pains me to say it, I think New Orleans' superior running game and pass defense will prove to be too much for the Pats; despite the best efforts of Brady, Belichick and Co., and even with their improved front seven, the Patriots will fall, and the Saints will rise to claim the Lombardi trophy for the second time in three years in an extremely close game.
Super Bowl XLVI Winner: New Orleans Saints
That's it for predictions until Week 8 or so (where I'm sure I'll come back and change my picks in many of these categories). From that point on, I'll be posting my playoff predictions each week until the end of the regular season.
Update: Yes, I saw last night's Packers-Saints game, and the Pack looked stellar right out of the gate. That being said, my picks remain the same. Brees and Rodgers had almost the same stats (Rodgers had a slightly higher completion percentage, Brees threw for more yards (419), and both had three touchdowns and no interceptions). It really came down to the fumble on the Saints opening drive, and the final play on the game (when Brees is having a stellar game, maybe try throwing the ball from the one yard line with no time on the clock?). Had those not happened, it might have been a totally different outcome. But hindsight is 20/20. It was a great game (Randall Cobb gets my MVP of the game award), and well played by both teams. I still think those two teams will see each other in the Championship game, and my gut says the Saints will take that one, though I wouldn't be surprised or shocked if the Pack won that game as well. We'll see what the picture looks like in a few weeks.
-Lucas
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