After Week 1, who will finish as the worst team in the league?
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Lucas:
This is a tough one. There are just so many options. When it comes down to it though, I see the Denver Broncos as this years' worst team. There are just too many issues for them not to be. Yes, they fixed a few of their defensive problems from last year by drafting Von Miller and Rahim Moore, and they still have a great receiver in Brandon Lloyd. But the pass-happy days of Josh McDaniels are gone, and in his place is John Fox, the coach who was just fired for leading the worst team in the league last year (and yes, I'm aware that much of that had to do with bad QB play), who's used to having at least a few decent running backs to work with from his days in Carolina. Look at what he has now: Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. Based on past production, not exactly the ideal backfield. Granted, Fox is more of a defensive guy, and talent-wise, I think they've really spent time and improved on that side of the ball. I'm just not sure if they can execute. Also, it's already Week 1, and the team already looks battered and bruised from just the first game. Champ Bailey, the team's number 1 CB, Elvis Dumervil (DE), Brandon Lloyd, and Moreno all haven't practiced in the past few days, and the odds are that many of them will be out for next week, if not longer.
And we've haven't even gotten to the best part yet: as the Broncos' like to call it, the "Tim Tebow thing". First off, I'll just start out by saying that it's a real problem when your fans are chanting, at the first home game of the year, for the third-string QB to come out and play. When fans are clamoring to buy billboards to express their discontent with not seeing Tebow in the game, I think you have a real disconnect between your fans and your team, and as much as people don't seem to want to say it, that makes an impact on a team. The fans say Tebow. The players say Kyle Orton. Orton is serviceable, but I don't think he's the type of QB that will take a team to the playoffs. I don't think Tebow is either. Orton looked sloppy and slow leading the Broncos' offense on Monday (sacked 5 times, 24 of 46, 1 interception and 1 fumble), but I don't think Tebow could have done much better. Tebow needs a lot of coaching before he can play at an NFL caliber level, no matter what accomplishments he had in college. I don't think it's impossible for him to get there (after all, Tebow is know for his tremendous work ethic, which I give him a lot of credit for), but it will take a lot of time, and I'm not sure that Fox, Elway, or any of the other Bronco personell will be willing to put in a lot of effort on a player that won't give them the immediate results they need. Either way, with McDaniels gone, Orton's production will decline since he'll no longer be passing the ball on every down, and Tebow lost his biggest supporter in Denver. All in all, the Broncos' QB situation is a mess, and that's going to lead to disaster on the field, no matter the talent or coaching staff that surrounds them. After everything that has happened during the offseason - Denver dangling Orton as trade bait, promising the job to Tebow, and then pulling the old switcheroo after they realized he was nowhere near ready - Denver is no longer an environment that breeds trust among a team, its coaches, or its fans. But, maybe drafting Andrew Luck will finally give the coaches, teammates, and fans someone to unify them, because that seems to be the direction that they're heading in.
Michelle:
We could start off this discussion by pointing out that a study (yes, a real one) has found that the Kansas City Chiefs are the worst-looking team. No, I don't mean they're going to have the worst season...I mean they are apparently the ugliest team in the league. (FWIW, the Bills are apparently the best...I guess we see now that looks don't always get you success.)
I think Lucas makes some great points about the Broncos, and I think this whole question is confounded by one big variable -- that being, of course, Andrew Luck. We can't really talk about the worst teams in the league with the typical considerations (talent, coaching, money), because we have this nebulous gray area: the possibility that one of any teams might deliberately tank their season in order to win the Luck lottery. I could see a number of teams pulling this, including the Broncos, the Colts (we'll discuss that later), and the 49ers. But I almost don't want to give that motive credit, because it's a real shame to throw a season for a higher draft pick. My first instinct tells me Browns, but with the first half of their season consisting of meetings with the Colts minus manning, the Titans, the Raiders, the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Bengals... they might be able to do some magic with their record. The Bengals, another contender in the worst season contest, have a similar first half.
So I'll be a little more old school here and throw my weight behind the Panthers. I'll touch on Newton in greater depth in our next topic, but I'm going to put a lot of weight on difficulty of season. Before their Bye Week, the Panthers have fallen to the Cards and are meeting the Packers, the Bears, the Saints, and the Falcons. That's a season that could make the top teams cry, and it doesn't include their two post-Bye meetings with the Bucs, who I think will have a strong showing this year, and their closer against the Saints. Their only hope might be found in...
After his stellar Week 1 performance, is Cam Newton is the real deal?
Lucas:
Cam Newton was great in his rookie debut. There's no doubt about that. But the question still remains for me: will Newton continue to look this good, or was the Cardinals defense really that bad? Passing for over 400 yards and 2 TDs in your first pro game is extremely impressive. But the Cardinals were in the bottom third of defenses last year, and I think Newton will struggle against better defenses; unfortunately for him, he's got two (arguably three) in his own division. It's going to be a tough year. He showed some rookie jitters in the final quarter when he couldn't get a drive going, forcing the team to punt to Patrick Peterson, who took it to the house for the game-winning touchdown (which was definitely not his fault). Little issues like that happen and are to be expected. But I think the great thing about Newton for the Panthers is that he gives them hope. In a locker room filled with a bleak outlook all of last year, it has to be nice for the Panthers and their fans to finally have something (or someone) to put their faith in. Newton showed the world that he can beat up on poor defenses, and that he's ready to try his hand at the NFL.
But unfortunately, I don't think that optimism will last for long - believe it or not, Newton will struggle this year (maybe for a few years to come), and I'm still not thoroughly convinced that he has what it takes to make it in this league long-term. One good performance does not a career make; even Chad Henne has had his 400+ yard games, and I think almost everyone would agree that he is not a great NFL QB. For now, though, Cam Newton has at least done what he needed to do: he has given the Panthers the spark they need to start believing again.
Michelle:
I'll be the first to admit I came off the draft and into this season a little less impressed with Newton, and I was genuinely surprised that he managed to throw 422 yards with 2 touchdowns. The interception hurt him, but it was still an impressive rookie debut, no doubts. Here's my issue with Cam Newton: let's say he stays at that level. I don't think he will, but let's just say. Those numbers might get him through his matchups against Rex Grossman or Kerry Collins, but he has still got to go up against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan. Even Matthew Stafford and Donovan McNabb could give him some trouble.
I think it really comes down to what Lucas said. In a way, Cam Newton has already done the most important thing he could do for the Panthers. He's given them something to build on and a hope for their future seasons. I think he and Jeremy Shockey could be a great team. I just don't see it all happening with such a tough season and with Newton being so fresh.
With Peyton Manning injured, what should the Colts' long-term plans be?
Lucas:
The one thing it's easy for the Colts to do in this situation is panic. My heart goes out to the Manning, as neck injuries can be scary for players, but I think even if he sits out the season, Manning will be back next year guns ablaze. I've read lots of articles this week that suggest the Colts' plan is to tank the season, draft Andrew Luck, and then either release Manning, no matter what shape he's in, or sit Luck behind Manning for a year and then trade Peyton away. I personally don't believe that to be the case. If that's the Colts' plan, they wouldn't have signed Kerry Collins - that's a good chunk of money just to watch the team lose, and they could've implemented that plan successfully with the guys they already have. Collins is still good for a few wins. People also need to remember that this is Peyton Manning we're talking about; the guy is arguably the best to ever play the game. If I were the Colts, I would take a still-recovering Manning over a rookie QB any day, and if Manning is able to play, he'll play. The only way I see Manning not playing next year (or even for the next few years) is if he is physically unable to do so. The Colts also just signed Manning to a $90 million, 5 year contract before the start of the season, and I know it has a bunch of clauses in it that will let the Colts out if they deem it necessary, but it's hard for me not to see the Colts wanting Manning to play (if he can) so they can see some return out of that investment. The big thing the Colts need to do is keep an eye on his recovery as the season progresses and evaluate his condition once the season is over. Without knowing all of the facts, the Colts can't make an accurate plan for the future of the franchise, and there's no need to purposefully do poorly this year if you don't need to.
The other thing that this whole mess highlights is the poor forward thinking of the Colts. They had no real backup, and no plans for any sort of post-Manning era. It's almost as though they thought Manning was untouchable and immortal (although, since he has started every game since he was drafted, I can see why they thought so). Even though it won't be Luck, the Colts need to take a QB in next years' draft, and use whatever time Manning has left to train and mold the rookie. That much should be certain. But until more is known about Manning's status later in the year, speculation and rash thinking is pointless, and the Colts need to avoid panicking for the sake of their future.
Michelle:
Here's my $.02 about player injuries, in general. My first thoughts in these situations are always with the player, and then only second do I think about team implications. And, somewhat tangential but completely necessary side rant, NEVER do I think about fantasy implications. I can't remember the last time I was so upset as I was when I saw, last year when Rodgers was out with his concussion for the game against New England, how many people were winky-whining about the implications for their fantasy teams. These injuries completely alter athletes' careers, and by default, their entire lives. I was incredibly disappointed with Bob Costas' halftime report / spectacle about Peyton Manning, in which he said that though Manning has led the league in talent, sportsmanship, and character for 13 seasons, his "window may now be closing." As Lucas pointed out, it sounded like he was writing his obituary. I just found it incredibly inappropriate that just because Manning might be out for 13 games, what he's accomplished in 13 seasons goes into question.
That being said, the Colts are in a bind. They've absolutely put all their stock in Manning, and until now, perhaps not wrongly so. Unfortunately, even if they didn't intentionally try to throw this season, they very well may still come close to it -- it's not going to be easy. But there's no reason why they can't expect Manning to have a healthy handful of years in front of him, and while they do need to do something about their backup QB situation...like now...I absolutely don't think going for Andrew Luck (and then even potentially having an Alex Smith situation on their hands) is the answer.
